We use data envelopment analysis to measure the relative efficiency among Indonesia’s provinces in using input to produce output over a 20-year period that includes the global economic crisis. We then employ the inequality decomposition technique of a Theil’s second measure to explore the extent to which the efficiency factor contributes to interprovincial income inequality.

   Our efficiency analysis reveals that most Indonesian provinces improved their relative inefficiency considerably in both resource utilization and allocation. Moreover, the relative inefficiency became convergent across provinces for the period. However, several provinces with serious pure technical and scale inefficiencies still exist in 2010. The province of Yogyakarta critically underperformed in resource utilization, and Central Kalimantan and Papua operate at further suboptimum scales. The former needs to develop appropriate mechanisms to efficiently use its given resources, while the latter need to mitigate business-unfriendly regulations and deal with financial constraints.

   The inequality decomposition analysis shows that interprovincial convergence of inequality in overall technical inefficiency largely contributed to the reduction in income inequality. The convergence of inequality in resource utilization inefficiency had a greater impact on inequality convergence in overall technical inefficiency than in resource allocation inefficiency.

   In 2010, pure labor productivity became a substantial new factor in determining income inequality. Since this measure is affected by per capita physical and human capital and technology, the spatial allocation imbalance of these factors has become a new concern in Indonesia.

　This paper considers a dynamic process of n-person social choice problems under q-majority where a status-quo policy is challenged by an opposing policy drawn randomly in each period. The opposing policy becomes the next status-quo if it receives at least q votes. We characterize stochastically stable policies under a boundedly rational choice rule of voters. Under the best response rule with mutations, a Condorcet winner is stochastically stable for all q-quota rules, and uniquely so if q is greater than the minmax quota. Under the logit choice rule, the Borda winner is stochastically stable under the unanimity rule. Our evolutionary approach provides a dynamic foundation of the mini-max policies in multidimensional choice problems with Euclidean preferences.

　近年，人工知能・ロボット・自動化に関する急速な技術進歩により人々の雇用が奪われるのではないかという懸念が高まっている．そこで本研究では，職業別のコンピュータ化確率と日本の雇用データを用いて，コンピュータ化に対する雇用リスクを分析する．本研究の特徴として，職業の地理分布は国内で均一ではなく，ある職業は都市に多く，またある職業は地方に多いということが観測されていることから，特に地域の異質性を考慮することにある．同様に，職業の地理分布は男女別にも異なることから，男女別・都市規模別という観点からコンピュータ化に対する雇用リスクを分析する．

　分析の結果，男性の場合，大都市圏ほどコンピュータ化されにくい職業に就いている労働者の割合が高く，コンピュータ化に対する雇用リスクが低くなる一方で，女性の場合，全く逆の傾向を示すことがわかった．つまり，大都市圏ほど，男性に対して女性はコンピュータ化に対する雇用リスクが相対的に高いということである．また，コンピュータ化確率の高い職業ほど就業者の平均教育年数の値が低い傾向にあり，コンピュータ化されにくい職業へ転職するには追加的な人的資本投資が必要とされることが示唆される．

　政策的含意として，多くの先行研究が指摘するように，コンピュータによって代替されにくい職業や今後生まれる新たな職業へ容易に転職ができるよう，人的資本の底上げは重要であると考えられる．また十分な人的資本を保有しているにも関わらず，コンピュータ化確率の高い職業に留まっている就業者も観測されており，潜在的に持っている能力を十分活用できるような雇用流動化を支える政策が重要になってくる．さらに，人工知能の支援によってビジネス効率化とよりよいワーク・ライフ・バランスの双方が実現されれば長時間労働が必要でなくなり，労働者の能力に基づいて評価される雇用環境を整備することは，女性活躍推進という点からも必要になってくるだろう．

人の流動は、都市の構造や機能を決定する重要な要素のひとつである。近年、GPSなどを利用することで詳細な地理空間データを得ることが可能となりつつある。都市の形成およびその理論的解明は都市経済学の重要な研究課題であるが、本講演では、複雑ネットワーク科学の手法を用いたデータ解析の結果を紹介し、これらの問題に新しい視点を与えたい。

　講演の前半では、GPSデータを用い、メッシュ間の人の流動量を表すネットワークを構築し、そのネットワークのコミュニティ検出を行った結果について報告する。このコミュニティは都市圏に対応するが、既存の行政区分にとらわれない、人の流動の実情を反映したものと考えられる。検出されたコミュニティの規模分布を調べると、パレート的な分布よりもピークが2つある対数正規分布でよく記述されることがわかった。

　後半では、都市の形成過程に関する数理モデルを提案する。本モデルでは、地形データを用いることで、人の流動量が勾配などの地形情報に依存する効果を導入する。また、メッシュ間の道路容量が人の流動量に応じて変化することも本モデルの特徴である。数値実験の結果、地形情報を考慮することで、実際に大都市が存在する場所に近い場所に人口密集地が形成されることがわかった。講演では、人口分散と人口集中に対応する定常解の存在など、モデルの性質についても考察を行う。

We show how transport and communication costs interact to shape the way firms organize their activities across space. We consider the following three organizational types: (i) integrated firms in which all activities are conducted under the same roof, (ii) horizontal firms, which operate several plants producing the same good at different locations, and (iii) vertical firms, which perform distinct activities at separated locations. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for the three types of organization to coexist within the same region. More specifically, the smaller region accommodates the three types of organizational forms, whereas firms located in the larger region are all spatially integrated. We then study how transport and communication costs affect the numbers of firm-types. First, lower transport makes competition softer because firms are able to change their organization form in response to a drop in transport costs. By contrast, the non-cooperative adjustment in firms' organizational forms does not allow them to compensate for the effects associated with less expensive communication flows. The reason for this difference in results is that the two types of spatial frictions differ in nature: in the proximity-concentration trade-off, lower transport costs weaken the need for proximity, while lower communication costs foster deconcentration.

　We establish a model of market competition among big and small firms and investigate how demand substitutability affects the impacts of big firms' entry on incumbents. We focus on the relative strength of two opposing effects of entry on the incumbent big firms' demand: the direct substitution effect among the big firms (negative), and the indirect feedback effect through the change in the aggregated behavior of small firms (positive). If the substitutability between big and small firms is sufficiently high, the indirect effect dominates the direct effect, and the big incumbents' equilibrium prices and profits increase. We show that the welfare effects are ambiguous, which calls for careful assessment for regulating big firms' entry.

　近年、低スキル労働と高スキル労働の雇用者数と賃金が増加し、中スキル労働の雇用者数と賃金が減少する"polarization" が注目されている。代表的な先行研究であるAutor and　Dorn (2013) では、中スキル労働（主にルーティンタスクに従事）と代替的な生産要素であるコンピューターの発達と、それによる生産の自動化を要因とし、spatial equilibrium モデルにおいてpolarization が起きる仕組みを説明した。また同論文では、コンピューターは高スキル労働と補完的であると考える時、生産の自動化は高スキル労働者の移住行動にも影響を与え、最も自動化の恩恵を受ける地域に高スキル労働者が集積するという効果を示した。本研究では、その効果を検証するため、2005 年から2014 年のアメリカのcounty間の人口の移出入データを用いて、生産の自動化による中スキル労働者の減少と人口移動の関係性について分析を行っている。

　交通システムにおける旅行時間は，時間帯や日によって大きく変動する．特に，Non-Recurrentな要因による旅行時間の変動は，利用者にとって大きなコストとなる．交通インフラ整備や料金施策による交通流の円滑化は，旅行時間信頼性の向上にも大きく貢献するため，その経済便益を適切に計測して事業評価に導入可能かどうかを検討することが必要である．本発表では，発表者がこれまでに行ってきた旅行時間信頼性の経済評価に関連する研究を，(1)相互作用を無視した個人レベルでの分析，(2) 個人間相互作用を考慮したシステム的分析，(3)動学的プロセスを考慮した分析，という三つの観点から解説する.

This paper proposes an appraisal standard as to whether to preserve or demolish disaster remains which could be intergenerational common patrimonies. Doing so requires to use the theoretical framework referred to as the Attributes/Functionings Theory à la Gorman-Lancaster-Sen, that regards the disaster remains as a composition of attributes. Sentimental and altruistic marginal willingness-to-preserve are introduced, by which the preservation of each remain should be accepted or not. Residents including the bereaved family and dark tourists maximize their happiness function by utilizing their time and functionings. The conditions for an individually optimal composition of attributes embodied in disaster remains as well as goods are derived. Also deduced are the necessary conditions for producers to maximize their profits by providing Pareto optimal combination of attributes.

A new approach to investigate spatially varying relationships

- Application to the hedonic analysis of flood risk -

This study developed a spatially varying coefficient model by extending the random effects eigenvector spatial filtering model (Murakami and Griffith, 2015). The developed model has the following properties: the coefficients are interpretable in terms of the Moran coefficient; unlike standard spatially varying coefficient models, our model estimates different spatial smoothness for each coefficient. A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that our model outperforms geographically weighted regression models with regard to the accuracy of the coefficient estimates and the computational time. We then empirically applied our model to a land price analysis of flood risk for Ibaraki prefecture. The obtained empirical result showed that flood risk was not capitalized into land prices around the inundated area by a river flood on September, 2015 in Joso municipality.

Gender Differences in Mobility of Hispanic Immigrants

　　The U.S. immigrant population is steadily increasing, and approximately half of this population is Hispanic. This paper aims to understand the mobility of Hispanic immigrants, particularly whether gender differences exist in their mobility. Using National Household Travel Survey data for 2009, this paper finds that the gender difference in mobility is greater among Hispanics, particularly for low-income Hispanic immigrants, than for other populations. Hispanic female immigrants are substantially less likely to be drivers than their male counterparts and females of other race/ethnicity groups. Moreover, the probability of being a driver is persistently low for Hispanic female immigrants even after years of residing in the U.S., while driver status of females in other race/ethnicity groups increases quickly as they stay longer in the U.S. Hispanic female immigrants are likely not actively choosing to be non-drivers; if they are drivers, they drive more than females of other race/ethnicity groups. Although regression analysis does not prove causal relationships between low-income status and driver status, there are policy implications if barriers to becoming a driver limit training or employment and contribute to low-income status. More detailed analysis is anticipated to detail the mobility challenges Hispanic female immigrants face.

HUMAN CAPITAL EXTERNALITIES IN CHINA (with Edward L. Glaeser)

　　This paper provides evidences of heterogeneous human capital externality using CHIP 2002 and 2007 data from urban China. After instrumenting city-level education using the number of relocated university departments across cities in the 1950s, 1 year more city-level education increases individual hourly wage by 22.7%, almost twice the OLS estimate. Human capital externality is found to be significantly positive for college graduates in the instrumental variable estimation.

Spatial Economics, Agent-Based Modeling and　Non-equilibrium　Dynamic Simulation

　　During the last two decades, a lot of innovations have appeared in the field of urban and regional research. New paradigms such as dynamics of complex systems, self-organization, evolution theory, have been recognized for better understanding the evolutional process of regional spatial structure. The spatial evolution of regional system can be seen as a cumulative and aggregated order which results from numerous locally made decisions.
　　As a case study in tourism, this presentation builds a mathematic model based on asymmetric monopolistic competition, scale economy, travel cost, preference for variety, and product/service differentiations between inland and coastal region in China since tourism has experienced a period of rapid growth in recent years. However, the traditional mathematic model is based on over-simplifying assumptions, such as heterogeneity irrelevant, fully-rational agents, no interactions among economic agents, unable to adapt and evolve. In addition, the equilibrium analysis is not suitable for dynamic research.
　　To overcome the weakness of traditional economic model and equilibrium analysis in traditional tourism research, the presentation puts forward an approach to integrate economic model with agent-based modeling for better understanding the evolutional process of tourism systems in different scenarios. Therefore, instead of making nonlinear systems tractable by modeling complex building blocks with few interactions, we can make them understandable by modeling simple building blocks with many interactions among different agents in different areas based on spatial economic model.
　The TourSwarm, a computational environment we developed, contains multiple economic interactions between tourist and firm agents that are crucial in understanding dynamic process and mechanism because the basic force driving the tourism system is inherently microscopic. This parallel processing agent-based approach has shown various advantages over existing economic approaches such as neoclassical model and equilibrium analysis.
　　By using agent-based modeling and out-of-equilibrium simulation, this presentation gives a detailed discussion on the impact factors such as continuous reduction of travel cost to inland region, continuous reduction of substitution elasticity between inland and coast region, continuous reduction of substitution elasticity of product and service in inland region. Therefore, microscopic simulation emphasizes the way in which locally made decisions and interaction between all kinds of local agents give rise to global patterns is highly appropriate.

In this paper, we consider a dynamic behavior of an urban structure where there exist three kinds of units, households, front units of business firms, and their back units. When exogenous parameters change, an equilibrium state may become unstable, and the urban dynamical system will exhibits a transient response i.e., a convergence to a new equilibrium.  For this purpose, we construct a gradient system in terms of the obtained Gateaux derivatives and analyze the gradient system in the finite dimensional case. We conclude that the equilibrium of the proposed dynamical model coincides with the Nash equilibrium of the static model.

Existing analyses of fiscal competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) often assume a one-shot interaction between governments and the firm within a static geographical environment where the firm makes a permanent location choice. We examine a regional model where the economic geography evolves, giving the firm an incentive to relocate. We show that government competition for FDI leads the firm to make efficient location choices such that it is more likely to relocate than in the absence of such international rivalry. This is because the national tax/subsidy offers absorb some of the firm’s relocation costs.

A century passed since Thorstein Veblen published his renowned book entitled, The Theory of Leisure Class: An Economic Study of Institutions. The theme in this paper is to revive his unique theory with respect to the theories and concepts à la Gorman-Lancaster- Sen. Doing so requires to use a new framework of the　Characteristics/　Capability Theory which is useful to explain both the Veblen’s consumption and Liebenstein’s snob and bandwagon effects in a more satisfactory way. Brand loyalty and conspicuous consumption are regarded as "impelled addictions."

We generalize the formulae for welfare changes by Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare (2012) and Melitz and Redding (2014a) to allow for various cardinalizations of the subutility functions for varieties. Despite the same macro restrictions and the same equilibrium allocations, our new formula coincides with the original ones if and only if the number of varieties is invariant to foreign shocks. When product diversity responds to foreign shocks, different cardinalizations generate different welfare changes, thus revealing a fundamental difficulty in quantifying welfare gains implied by new trade models.

It is assumed in new trade theory and new economic geography that the supply of labor is fixed, which is not true in real labor markets. We develop a model of newtrade theory by incorporating an elastic labor supply and analyze the impacts of technological progress on the equilibrium outcomes of working hours and economic welfare. We first show that the labor supply curve is backward bending. We thenshow that working hours in developed countries are longer in the first stages of evelopment, but shorter in the second stages of development.

This paper studies the effectiveness of building height limits as a policy to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It shows that building height limits lead to urban sprawl and higher emissions from commuting. On the other hand, aggregate housing consumption may decrease which reduces emissions from residential energy use. A numerical model is used to show that total GHG emissions may be lower under building height restrictions, but only when they are very strict. Welfare is not concave in the strictness of building height limits, so either no limit or a very strict one might maximize welfare. The paper also studies the effect of endogenous transporttechnology and the urban heat island etc.

山村能郎　（明治大学）

Credit Risk Analysis on Euro Government Bonds

– Term Structures of Default Probabilities– (with

Takeaki Kariya, Yoko Tanokura, Zhu Wang)

　In this paper, we make a comprehensive credit risk analysis on government bonds (GBs) of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece over the period 2007.4-2012.3, where interest rate (IR) differential, government bond (GB) price differential, default probability (DP) and CDS are considered. First, applying the GB-pricing model in Kariya (1993) to these GB prices, we derive the term structures of interest rates (TSIRs) and discuss on the Maastricht convergence condition for the IR-differentials among these states relative to the German TSIRs and make some observations on some divergent tendencies. The results are associated with the business cycles and budgetary condition of each state.

In the second part, to substantiate this viewpoint, we first make credit risk price spread (CRiPS) analysis on price differentials and derive the term structures of default probabilities (TSDPs) of the French, Italian, Spanish and Greek GBs relative to the German GBs, where the corporate bond (CB) model proposed in Kariya (2013) is used in the derivation.  Then it is empirically shown that the TSDPs show a significant divergent movement at the end of 2011, affected by the Euro Crisis. In addition, the TSDPs of these GBs are empirically shown to be almost linear functions of the differences of the TSIRs, which enables us to state the Maastricht condition in terms of DP. 

 Thirdly the effectiveness of our TSDPs is empirically verified by comparing them with the corresponding credit default swap (CDSs) against US dollars.

Rapid progress of economic development and urbanization has created a water demand crisis in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis in North China. This study evaluates the metropolis’s carrying capacity under water resource constraints by examining the discrepancies between the actual water requirements, water usage and the locally available water resources; the water footprint (WF) approach is used to assess associated changes in these variables. A structural decomposition analysis is applied to decompose the driving factors of the increasing water requirements in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis. The results indicate that the increasing actual water requirements are far greater than the increase in the locally available water resources and water usage, especially in Beijing. The discrepancy between the actual water requirements, locally available water resources and water usage sharply increased from 2002 to 2007, which introduced a serious water crisis and more significant constraints on the water resources. The carrying capacity was based on freshwater transfer, groundwater extraction and VW trade. Four separate factors are considered to contribute to the effects of actual water requirement changes from 2002 to 2007: technological improvements, economic system efficiency, scale effect and consumption structure changes. Significant water-saving efforts via technological improvement have been made in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis in the past. However, these improvements could not cover the increasing actual water requirements driven by economic and population growth. To address the two challenges (i.e., regional development and the water shortage) and to enhance the carrying capacity in terms of sustainability in the future, the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis should adopt a more active role in controlling the growth of population and increasing the WF. Although increased water resources and interregional virtual water trades with other regions have greatly contributed to alleviating the water crisis in recent years in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis, the water saving potential may be realized through the readjustment of industrial structure, consumption structure, urban spatial structure and economic instruments in the future.

地域科学講演会

Keith Hipel教授による研究科講演会のご案内

Fulfillment and Success in Research

カナダ・ウォータールー大学工学部システムデザイン工学科

City size distributions are known to be well approximated by power laws across many countries. One popular explanation for such power-law regularities is in terms of random growth processes, where power laws arise asymptotically from the assumption of iid growth rates among all cities within a given country. But this assumption has additional consequences. Since all subsets of cities have the same statistical properties, each subset must exhibit essentially the same power law. Moreover, this common power law (CPL) property must hold regardless of the spatial relations among cities. Using data from the US, this paper shows first that spatial partitions of cities based on geographical proximity are significantly more consistent with the CPL property than are random partitions. It is then shown that this significance becomes even stronger then proximity among cities is measured in terms of trade linkages rather than simple geographical distance. These results provide compelling evidence that spatial relations between cities do indeed matter for city-size distributions. Further analysis show that these results hinge on the natural "spacing out" property of city patterns in which larger cities tend to be widely spaced apart with smaller cities organized around them.

This study investigates how structure of supply chain network of the domestic market influences FDI of firms embedded in the network. We firstly describe a binary choice of firms whether invest or not by a coordination game on fixed network with incomplete information on part of firms’ profit, and addressed that the unique equilibrium of the game is represented by Katz-Bonacich centrality measure which captures both direct and indirect effects from the network. We also give empirical tests for the theoretical hypothesis with a large sized disaggregated data of Japanese firms.  As our theory anticipated, it is verified that Katz-Bonacich centrality of each firm has a significantly positive effect on its FDI even when the sector-specific fixed effects and other attributes such as productivity are controlled.

The road pricing policies in the Chicago MSA are analyzed using RELU- TRAN2, a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model. The policies are: a) quasi- Pigouvian tolling of major roads; and b) of major and local roads; (a) and (b) are compared to their revenue-neutral fuel taxes. Qiasi-Pigouvian tolls on all roads and fuel taxes centralize the location of residences and jobs. Quasi-Pigouvian toll on major roads suburbanize these. Rents are increased under all of these policies because the floor spade demands increase of revenue distribution. The firms substitute labor for the building space and the wages are increased. Urban sprawl measured as total developed land increases under all policies. The model also calculates effects on VMT, GPM, aggregate fuel and CO2.

We study endogenous productivity in monopolistic competition with general (unspecified) utility/investment functions; a bigger investment yields smaller marginal cost. Then the equilibrium investment increase with the market size if and only if the utility (realistically) generates increasing demand elasticity and this increase can be abrupt (threshold effect). However, this technological advantage of a bigger country/city is different from a welfare advantage. To fit social optimality conditions, a governmental taxation/subsidy should be non-linear. Our extensions include comparisons among industries with different characteristics, exogenous technological progress, heterogeneous firms.

第128回地域科学ワークショップ

Sergey Kokovin 　博士

１４：００～１５：２０　Meng Bo (Jetro)
Rise of Global Value Chains and Trade in Value Added

１５：３０～１７：００　Fu　Xue (Fudan　University)
China’s　Industry Actual Potential for Carbon Emission Reduction　based on Optimal　Input-Output Model

藤嶋　翔太
(ワシントン大学　博士課程)

Growth, Agglomeration, and Urban Congestion

By considering an endogenous growth model with two　regions and aunit mass of mobile workers, we study　interactions among growth, agglomeration, and urban　congestion. Unlike previous research in the urban growth literature, we formulate the model as a one-shot game and take an evolutionary game-theoretic approach for stability analysis. Our approach enables us to analyze stability of nonstationary equilibria in which populations of each region are not constant over time. We show that if both the expenditure share for housing and inter- regional transport cost are small, a stable stationary equilibrium does not exist. Moreover, in such a case, we show that there can exist a stable nonstationary equilibrium in which mobile workers agglomerate in one region at first but some of them migrate to the other region later. We argue that such a nonstationary location pattern is related to return migration.

瀬木　俊輔　（京都大学　博士課程）

DSGEモデルによる災害リスクの地域間配分と防災投資に関する分析

本研究は、動学的確率的一般均衡（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,　DSGE）モデルを用いて、防災投資と災害リスクの地域間配分の規範的なあり方を分析する。本研究の分析により、災害リスク存在下の効率的な物的資本ストックの蓄積に関する、いくつかの知見が得られた。第一の知見は、災害リスク移転先の地域では、災害リスク移転元の地域から支払われる保険料が投資に用いられるため、災害リスクを引き受けないときと比較すると、平常時において、より多くの生産資本（工場や道路などの生産活動に寄与する資本）が蓄積されることである。この余分な生産資本により、リスク移転元の地域が被災したときに支払う保険金が確保される。この結果は、パレート最適なリスク配分の実現のためには、復興の資金が地域外の生産資本という形で確保されなければいけないことを示していると言える。第二の知見は、災害が生起する可能性のある地域における生産資本ストックKと防災資本ストックGの組(K,G)は、長期的には、ある右上がりの曲線G=g(K)の上に乗らなければいけないことである。(K,G)がこの曲線上に無い場合には、不足している資本にのみ投資を行い、できる限り早くこの曲線上に乗らなければいけない。この曲線G=g(K)は、所与の生産資本ストックKの下で、防災資本ストックが長期的に到達すべき指針を表していると解釈できる。また、本研究は、この曲線G=g(K)が、災害リスクの取引される金融市場で観測される価格と密接に結びついていることを示す。災害リスクのリスクプレミアムが高いほど、この曲線は上方にシフトし、長期的に蓄積されるべき防災資本ストックは高くなる。

原　裕輔
(東京大学大学院　工学系研究科)

動学的意思決定を考慮した協調型料金制度設計とその評価

Guoqing Zhao
(School of Economics, Renmin University of China)

FDI Spillovers Effect, Environmental Pollution and Total Factor Productivity

Using the correlated data of 28 Chinese manufacturing industries during 1999-2008, this paper examines the effects of the foreign direct investment, which is distinguished as horizontal, forward linkage and backward linkage spillovers, and environmental pollution on total factor productivity.The empirical results show that the existence of positive spillovers from FDI taking place through backward linkages, but there are no significant evidences of spillovers occurring through either the horizontal or the forward linkage channel. Environmental pollution has significant negative effect on TFP. Further studies suggest that horizontal FDI spillover effect mitigates the disadvantage effect of environment pollution on industry’ productivity progress and decreases the emission of environment pollution, while on the contrary, the vertical FDI spillover effect (especially through backward linkages) doesn’t mitigate the disadvantage effect of environment pollution on industry’ productivity progress and increases the emission of environment pollution.