都市社会経済システム分析分野 本文へジャンプ

コロナ感染症拡大防止期間中に、地域科学WS発表はオンランで行います。 応用地域学会会員もしくはWS運営メンバーの紹介で参加可能です。参加希望の方は, WS運営メンバー曽・河野・伊藤・藤原にご連絡ください。
第174 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2022年8月19日(金)10:00~12:00
場所 オンライン(Zoom)
報告者 Yuichi Imai (Washington University in St. Louis)

Residential Choice under Uncertainty: Brownian Motion in Idiosyncratic Tastes for Locations

アブストラクト This paper introduces uncertainty in idiosyncratic tastes for locations into a monocentric city model of residential land use. Each household’s idiosyncratic taste is assumed to follow a Brownian motion in space. The index variable of the Brownian motion is distance from the CBD instead of time, which means that the taste is a random function of distance. Each household has their initial location for which they know their taste but they do not know their taste for other locations. The Brownian motion captures the idea that the extent of uncertainty is greater for a far-away location. In the case that there are two income types, I show that there may be a region in the city where two types collocate. Furthermore, in such a mixed region, the lot size for lower income households may be decreasing in distance from the CBD. These two implications are sharp contrast to the standard monocentric city model without uncertainty, and are investigated empirically using American Community Survey 2015 public data and American Housing Survey 1996 Metro data.

第173 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2022年7月29日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 オンライン(Zoom)
報告者 Tomohiro Machikita (京都大学 東南アジア地域研究研究所)

Transition to a Modern Regime and Change in Plant Lifecycles: A Natural Experiment from Meiji Japan(with Tetsuji Okazaki)

アブストラクト This paper explores how political, social, and economic regime changes affect the lifecycles of manufacturing plants, exploiting Japan’s transition from a feudal regime to a modern regime in the late nineteenth century as a natural experiment. Using plant-level data for 1902, including the foundation year of each plant, we explored how the experience years-size profiles of plants differ before and after the regime change. Plants were found to grow much faster after the regime change, and the acceleration of growth after the regime change was much greater for the plants in exporting industries, industries intensively using steam power, and plants adopting the corporate form. These findings suggest that access to markets, access to modern technologies, and availability of the modern corporate form were the channels through which the regime change affected the experience years-size profile of plants. Furthermore, long-term historical data and narratives on two plants support the results. Keywords: Plant lifecycle, Market access, Technology adoption, Trade reform, Corporate form, Natural experiment, Economic history, Economic development, Japan.

第172 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2022年5月13日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 オンライン(Zoom)
報告者 上田仁彦 (山口大学 大学院創成科学研究科 理学系学域)

繰り返しゲームにおけるゼロ行列式戦略の数理: ゲームに依存しない性質と拡張

アブストラクト 繰り返しゲームは長期間に渡って相互作用のある複数のエージェントの意思決定を分析する際に用いられる。近年、無限回繰り返しゲームにおいて「ゼロ行列式(ZD)戦略」と呼ばれる戦略のクラスが発見された。ZD戦略はプレイヤーの利得の間に一方的に線形関係式を課すような戦略である。囚人のジレンマゲームにおいてはZD戦略には、相手の利得を一方的に制御する戦略や、絶対に負けない戦略など、直観に反するものが含まれる。これまで主に、囚人のジレンマゲームにおけるZD戦略の進化的安定性が調べられると同時に、ZD戦略の適用範囲の拡張が行われてきた。本発表では、ZD戦略の導入を行った後、我々の研究成果である、ゲームに依存しないZD戦略の性質と制御能力の拡張について解説する。具体的には、ZD戦略の整合性、複数の線形関係式を同時に課すZD戦略の存在、利得のモーメントの線形関係式を課す変形ZD戦略の導入とその意義、ZD戦略の記憶m戦略クラス(m>1)への拡張と条件付き平均利得の制御、負けない戦略クラスとの関係、などを取り上げる。.

第171 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2022年3月28日(月)14:00~15:30
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科2階大講義室
報告者 守田智 (静岡大学 工学部 数理システム工学科)

地域間人流ネットワークと感染症拡散モデル(with Kuninori Nakagawa and Minoru Osawa)

アブストラクト 感染症蔓延は地理的な拡散現象とみなすことができ,古くは2次元空間上の反応拡散系を基盤としたモデルで考察されてきた.一方で,近年の交通網の発展により地理的に離れた場所にも感染が伝播し世界的に拡大する傾向が強くなっており,旅客機の国際線ネットワーク上の拡散過程として感染症蔓延を捉える研究も注目されてきた.本研究では,それよりもローカルな地域レベルでの感染症拡散を考察する.すなわち,1つの地域経済圏内の感染拡大現象に着目する.具体的には近畿地方におけるパーソントリップ調査を元に市区町村間の日次移動のネットワークを構成しそのネットワーク上で感染拡大をみる.感染拡散モデルとして「移動拡散」と「接触拡散」の2通りの拡散過程を想定して,それぞれの影響を考察する.

第170 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2022年3月4日(金)16:00~18:00
報告者 小林照義 (神戸大学)

社会・経済ネットワークにおける連鎖現象と調整ゲーム(with Tomokatsu Onaga)

アブストラクト 人間や企業および銀行などの主体は、多様な社会的・経済的関係性によって複雑につながっている。そうしたつながりの多様性は平時には効率性をもたらすが、感染症の流行や銀行破綻などが発生した場合には負の影響を広げる役目も果たす。本発表では、社会ネットワークを通じた人間行動の伝播や、金融ネットワークにおける連鎖的な投げ売りのダイナミクスを解析する理論的枠組みを提示する。例えば、経済学において分析されてきた調整ゲームを基礎とした解析を一般的の複雑ネットワークに拡張し、これまで正確に得られていなかったナッシュ均衡を導出する。また、複数の財・活動が伝播するモデルでは、両者の伝播において対称性の破れが発生し、平均場等の理論計算によって得られる均衡値は不正確になる場合があることを示す。さらに時間が許せば、金融機関が資産を重複して保有することに起因して発生する「投げ売り(fire sales)」のモデルも紹介する。

第169 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2021年12月17日(金)16:00~18:00
報告者 山本和博 (大阪大学)

City size and the Henry George Theorem under monopolistic competition with heterogenous firms (with A Tadokoro and T Morita)

アブストラクト We study the equilibrium and the optimal resource allocation in a monocentric city model under monopolistic competition among heterogenous firms with a demand function of variable elasticity of substitution. First, we show that a large city has a lower equilibrium cost cutoff in our heterogeneous firms model. Second, we show that in a large city, high productivity firms become large and low productivity firms become small. The increase in the city size redistributes the resource from small firms to large firms. Third, we show that the Henry George Theorem (HGT) holds in the second best equilibrium.

第168 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2021年11月5日(金)10:00~12:00
報告者 Takahiro Yabe (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Resilience of Coupled Urban Socio-Physical Systems to Disasters: A Data-Driven Modeling Approach

アブストラクト Cities face challenges in developing urban infrastructure systems in a resilient manner, with rapid urbanization and increasing frequency of external shocks. Large-scale data collected from mobile devices, including mobile phone GPS data, allow us to observe urban dynamics before, during, and after disaster events in an unprecedented spatial-temporal scale. Using such data, I study the recovery dynamics and resilience of urban systems to disasters using a data-driven modeling approach, with particular emphasis on the complex interdependencies among social, economic, and infrastructure systems. A case study in Puerto Rico during Hurricane Maria reveals a trade-off relationship in urban development, where developed cities with robust infrastructure systems have higher recovery efficiency of critical services, however, have socio-economic networks with lower self-reliance during crises, which lead to loss of community resilience. Managing and balancing the socio-economic self-reliance alongside physical infrastructure robustness is key to resilient cities.

第167 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2020年9月17日(木)10:00~12:00
報告者 笹原彰 (慶応大学)

The impact of global warming on rural-urban migrations: Evidence from global big data (With Giovanni Peri)

アブストラクト This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger.

第166 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2020年7月21日(火)14:00~16:00
報告者 中川万理子 (東京大学)

Residential agglomeration of the homeless and their affluence
(joint with Kotaro Iizuka)

アブストラクト Starting from an observation that homeless persons located in the riverbank of Tama River in Tokyo are settled in clusters, we analyze the extent of the benefits they enjoy from residing in clusters. To do so, we first detect locations of houses of homeless persons by using a UAS (Unmanned Aerial System; drone) and find the optimal number of clusters of houses based on single linkage clustering, one of the hierarchical cluster analysis methods. After detecting clusters, we evaluate the effect of locating in a larger cluster on the homeless person's affluence, which is measured by temperature of each house in winter. Our results show that the larger a cluster to which a house belongs is, the higher its temperature is, indicating that living in a larger cluster makes them live in more affluence. In addition, we find a negative bias of the uninstrumented estimates, which can be interpreted as an indication of negative self-selection of homeless persons to sort into a large community. That is, more disadvantaged homeless persons sort into a larger cluster, and by doing so, they benefit from living in a larger community via interaction with those living in the same cluster.

第165 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2020年2月18日(火)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 土居直史 (小樽商科大学)

Pass-through with Endogenous Quality: An Empirical Study of Per-passenger and Per-flight Airport Charges

アブストラクト  This study empirically investigates the pass-through rates and incidence in the airline industry to understand how airport charges affect airfares, service quality (flight frequency), and welfare. It estimates a structural model endogenizing airfares and flight frequency by using data on Japanese domestic routes and conducts simulation analyses. It is found that while per-flight charges hardly affect airfares, an increase in per-passenger charges significantly raises airfares with the average pass-through rate of 97.5 percent. The pass-through rates are overestimated when flight frequency is treated as exogenous. Both types of charges decrease flight frequency. In addition, on nearly 80 percent of the routes in the sample, while per-passenger charges are superior to per-flight charges from the viewpoint of airline profits, the order is reversed from the viewpoints of the passenger and social surpluses.

第164 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2019年12月10日(火)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Jian Wang (Shanghai University)

Measuring Health Cost of Air Pollution

アブストラクト We empirically examine the effect of air pollution on medical expenditure using Korean monthly station-level air pollutant data and the public health insurance claim records. The endogenous domestic air pollution effect on health demand is identified and estimated using Chinese monthly air pollutant data as instrumental variables. From the main result, we find that nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter smaller than 10_m (PM10) effect positively on both medical expenditure and number of hospital visits. For respiratory related diseases, carbon monoxide (CO) has a positive effect on medical expenditure and ozone (O3) has a positive effect on hospital visit. The estimated coefficients imply that NO2 and PM10 increase hospital visit by 1.35% and 0.36% respectively, and the medical expenditure is increased by 0.27% and 0.07% respectively. For the respiratory related diseases, CO increase medical expenditure by 1.19%, and O3 increase hospital visit by 0.93%.

第163 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2019年7月25日(木)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Jos van Ommeren (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Short-term rentals and the housing market:
Quasi-experimental evidence from Airbnb in Los Angeles

アブストラクト  Online short-term rental (STR) platforms such as Airbnb have grown spectacularly. We study the effects of STR-platforms on the housing market using a quasi-experimental research design. 18 out of 88 cities in Los Angeles County have severely restricted short-term rentals by adopting Home Sharing Ordinances. We apply a panel regression-discontinuity design around the cities’ borders. Ordinances reduced listings by 50% and housing prices by 3%. Additional difference-in-differences estimates show that ordinances reduced rents also by 3%. These estimates imply large effects of Airbnb on property values in areas attractive to tourists (e.g. an increase of 10% within 2.5km of Downtown LA).

第162 回地域科学ワークショップ
日時 2019年4月5日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 河端 瑞貴 (慶応義塾大学)

Intra-metropolitan spatial patterns of female labor force participation and commute times in Tokyo (with Yukiko Abe)

アブストラクト We explore intra-metropolitan spatial patterns of female labor force participation, and examine how they relate to commute times in Tokyo. The spatial patterns differ markedly by marital status and the presence of children. For married mothers, the spatial clusters of low participation and regularemployment rates are largely located in the inner suburbs, many of which overlap with the spatial clusters of long male commute times. The spatial regression results indicate that for married mothers, a longer commute time is significantly associated with lower participation and regular employment rates, while for unmarried and childless married women, these associations are mostly nonsignificant. Among married mothers, the magnitude of the negative associations is greater for college graduates than for those with a high school education or less, suggesting that highly educated mothers are especially sensitive to commute times. We argue that the spatial transportation constraint intensifies the household division of labor, resulting in unique patterns for married mothers.

日時 2018年10月24日(水)14:00~16:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 平岡 喬之
(Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics)
 タイトル 時系列ネットワーク上の流行拡大
アブストラクト 私たちは日々、家族、友人、同僚らと顔と顔を合わせたり、あるいは電話、メール、SNS、インスタントメッセージなどの手段を通じて接触し、コミュニケーションを行っている。このような個人間の相互作用を時間方向に見ると時系列が見え、また個人間の関係を社会全体にわたって集めると社会ネットワークが立ち上がる。このように、時系列とネットワークの両面をあわせもつ数理構造を時系列ネットワーク(temporal network)といい、その性質を詳しく調べることが社会ネットワーク上で起こる動的現象、たとえば感染症の流行拡大や情報の拡散などの理解につながると期待され、ネットワーク科学の分野で近年注目されている。さまざまな人間の活動や相互作用の時系列データを調べると、時間的に不均一で間欠突発的な性質(バースト性)が広く見られる。このバースト性に代表される時系列の統計的な性質は流行拡大現象に影響すると考えられていて、実証的、半実証的、理論的にさまざまな示唆が得られている。私たちは、バースト性を表すさまざまな時系列の性質の中で、特に連続する相互作用イベント間の時間間隔(たとえば前の通話から次の通話までの時間間隔)の間の相関に着目し、それが流行拡大の動的過程に与える影響について理論的に調べた。その結果、複数回の接触によって感染が伝播するモデルを考えると、一般に相関によって流行拡大が減速することを、平均場的な解析計算とモデル・ネットワーク上での数値計算によって示した。

日時 2018年10月19日(金)16:30~18:30
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 貝戸 清之(大阪大学)


アブストラクト 老朽化が団塊的に進行するインフラ施設を対象として,予算制約下においてライフサイクル費用の最小化を達成するような最適補修施策を立案するための方法論(アセットマネジメント)が求められている.アセットマネジメントを遂行していくうえで,中核をなす要素技術は劣化予測であるが,一方でインフラ施設の劣化過程を記録した情報は目視点検データのみであると言っても過言ではない.そのために,目視点検データに基づく統計的劣化予測手法が数多く開発され,一部は試行的な実用化段階にある.本セミナーでは,統計的劣化予測手法を中心に,これまでのアセットマネジメント研究を紹介するとともに,今後のアセットマネジメント研究の方向性について述べる.

日時 2018年9月21日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 亀山 嘉大(佐賀大学)
 タイトル 人口減少時代におけるアクセシビリティの改善と人口移動
アブストラクト 奈良時代以降、一貫して増加してきた我が国の人口は、2008年をピークに減少に転じている。国際的に見ても、未曾有の人口減少時代を迎えた訳だが、既に、大部分の地方都市は深刻な人口減少に直面している。地方都市の人口減少は、高齢者人口の自然減と若年者人口の社会減に起因している。地方都市から流出した人口(地方都市の社会減)は、一部の大都市の人口増加に繋がっている。人口増加時代における国土計画である1972年の列島改造論の段階で、国土の均衡ある発展に向けた課題と目的が明示されており、新幹線や高速道路といった交通ネットワークの整備によって輸送費を低減し、各種の機能の分散が図られてきた。輸送費の低減は、新産業都市や工業整備特別地域の指定もあって一定の分散効果を発揮したが、フェイス・トゥ・フェイス・コミュニケーションが必要である知識集約型の経済活動(管理機能)を大都市へ集中させ、東京一極集中をもたらした。このことは、市場メカニズムに基づく集積効果がいかに強いのかを示している。本稿では、空間経済学の視点から、人口減少時代におけるアクセシビリティの改善(輸送費の低減)、マーケットポテンシャルによる集積効果、政策効果が地方都市の移住・定住人口の動向にどのような影響を与えているのかを分析した。2015年における人口流出超過地域から人口流入超過地域(主に地方都市から大都市)への人口移動、人口流入超過地域から人口流出超過地域(主に大都市から地方都市)への人口移動を区別して、計量分析を行った。推定結果から、従来型の人口移動は、集積効果、賃金効果、政策効果から正の影響、移動費用から負の影響を受けていること、移住・定住のような主に大都市から地方都市への人口移動は、政策効果から正の影響、移動費用から負の影響を受けているが、集積効果の効果は受けていないことが示された。

日時 2018年7月27日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 栗野 盛光(慶応大学)
 タイトル College Admissions with Entrance Exams: Centralized versus Decentralized (with Isa E. Hafalir, Rustamdjan Hakimov, Dorothea Kübler)
アブストラクト We study a college adminssions problem in which college accept sudents by ranking students’ efforts in entrance exams. Students’ ability levels affect the cost of their efforts. We solve and compare equilibria of “centralized college admissions” (CCA) where students apply to all colleges and “decentralized college admissions” (DCA) where students only apply to one college. We show that lower ability students prefer DCA whereas higher ability students prefer CCA. Many predictions of the theory are supported by a lab experiment designed to test the theory, yet we find a number of differences that render DCA less attractive than CCA compared to the equilibrium benchmark.

日時 2018年7月23日(月)16:30~18:30
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 津布久 将史(大東文化大学)
 タイトル The Politics of Tariff Cooperation in the Presence of Trade Costs
アブストラクト    In this study, we explore tariff cooperations under representative democracy, comparing national welfare realized in three types of trading regime; most favored nation treatment, customs union (CU), and free trade agreement (FTA). Two points are focused on: First, there is a puzzle that a number of FTA has been rapidly increasing for a couple of decades, compared to that of CU, while most of theoretical studies in the literature predict CU can bring on a higher level of national welfare than FTA. Second, in the real economy, why are most of CUs formed between countries located closely to each other, while FTAs can be formed, even if the countries are located far from each other? To shed light on these questions, we build a model featured by two key factors: First, we examine a situation in the presence of trade costs. Second, tariff policy is determined under the regime of representative democracy. As a result, in the case where the income distribution in the countries is largely skewed, FTA is able to realize a higher level of national welfare than CU, due to the existence of trade costs. However, in the case where the member countries are located so closely to each other, CU can realize higher welfare than FTA can.

日時 2018年1月26日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 片岡 光彦 (立教大学)
 タイトル Inequality convergence in interprovincial income and inefficiency in Indonesia for 1990-2010

 We use data envelopment analysis to measure the relative efficiency among Indonesia’s provinces in using input to produce output over a 20-year period that includes the global economic crisis. We then employ the inequality decomposition technique of a Theil’s second measure to explore the extent to which the efficiency factor contributes to interprovincial income inequality.

   Our efficiency analysis reveals that most Indonesian provinces improved their relative inefficiency considerably in both resource utilization and allocation. Moreover, the relative inefficiency became convergent across provinces for the period. However, several provinces with serious pure technical and scale inefficiencies still exist in 2010. The province of Yogyakarta critically underperformed in resource utilization, and Central Kalimantan and Papua operate at further suboptimum scales. The former needs to develop appropriate mechanisms to efficiently use its given resources, while the latter need to mitigate business-unfriendly regulations and deal with financial constraints.

   The inequality decomposition analysis shows that interprovincial convergence of inequality in overall technical inefficiency largely contributed to the reduction in income inequality. The convergence of inequality in resource utilization inefficiency had a greater impact on inequality convergence in overall technical inefficiency than in resource allocation inefficiency.

   In 2010, pure labor productivity became a substantial new factor in determining income inequality. Since this measure is affected by per capita physical and human capital and technology, the spatial allocation imbalance of these factors has become a new concern in Indonesia.

日時 2017年7月28日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 澤 亮治 (つくば大学)
 タイトル An evolutionary approach to social choice problems with q-quota rules

 This paper considers a dynamic process of n-person social choice problems under q-majority where a status-quo policy is challenged by an opposing policy drawn randomly in each period. The opposing policy becomes the next status-quo if it receives at least q votes. We characterize stochastically stable policies under a boundedly rational choice rule of voters. Under the best response rule with mutations, a Condorcet winner is stochastically stable for all q-quota rules, and uniquely so if q is greater than the minmax quota. Under the logit choice rule, the Borda winner is stochastically stable under the unanimity rule. Our evolutionary approach provides a dynamic foundation of the mini-max policies in multidimensional choice problems with Euclidean preferences.

日時 2017年6月16日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 近藤恵介 (産業経済研究所)
 タイトル 地域の雇用と人工知能




日時 2017年5月26日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 藤原直哉 (東京大学生産技術研究所)
 タイトル 人の流動のネットワーク解析




(主催:東北大学・情報科学研究科 共催:アジア経済研究所)
日時 2017年4月24日(月)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Jacques-Francois Thisse (日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所)
 タイトル Do firms compete in organizational forms across space? The role of communication costs

We show how transport and communication costs interact to shape the way firms organize their activities across space. We consider the following three organizational types: (i) integrated firms in which all activities are conducted under the same roof, (ii) horizontal firms, which operate several plants producing the same good at different locations, and (iii) vertical firms, which perform distinct activities at separated locations. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for the three types of organization to coexist within the same region. More specifically, the smaller region accommodates the three types of organizational forms, whereas firms located in the larger region are all spatially integrated. We then study how transport and communication costs affect the numbers of firm-types. First, lower transport makes competition softer because firms are able to change their organization form in response to a drop in transport costs. By contrast, the non-cooperative adjustment in firms' organizational forms does not allow them to compensate for the effects associated with less expensive communication flows. The reason for this difference in results is that the two types of spatial frictions differ in nature: in the proximity-concentration trade-off, lower transport costs weaken the need for proximity, while lower communication costs foster deconcentration.

日時 2017年3月3日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 潘 麗君 (名古屋大学)
 タイトル  Is a Big Entrant a Threat to Incumbents?  The Role of Demand Substitutability in Competition among the Big and the Small

 We establish a model of market competition among big and small firms and investigate how demand substitutability affects the impacts of big firms' entry on incumbents. We focus on the relative strength of two opposing effects of entry on the incumbent big firms' demand: the direct substitution effect among the big firms (negative), and the indirect feedback effect through the change in the aggregated behavior of small firms (positive). If the substitutability between big and small firms is sufficiently high, the indirect effect dominates the direct effect, and the big incumbents' equilibrium prices and profits increase. We show that the welfare effects are ambiguous, which calls for careful assessment for regulating big firms' entry.

日時 2017年1月20日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 岡本千草 (東京大学)
 タイトル  The impact of production automation on routine work and intercity migration

 近年、低スキル労働と高スキル労働の雇用者数と賃金が増加し、中スキル労働の雇用者数と賃金が減少する"polarization" が注目されている。代表的な先行研究であるAutor and Dorn (2013) では、中スキル労働(主にルーティンタスクに従事)と代替的な生産要素であるコンピューターの発達と、それによる生産の自動化を要因とし、spatial equilibrium モデルにおいてpolarization が起きる仕組みを説明した。また同論文では、コンピューターは高スキル労働と補完的であると考える時、生産の自動化は高スキル労働者の移住行動にも影響を与え、最も自動化の恩恵を受ける地域に高スキル労働者が集積するという効果を示した。本研究では、その効果を検証するため、2005 年から2014 年のアメリカのcounty間の人口の移出入データを用いて、生産の自動化による中スキル労働者の減少と人口移動の関係性について分析を行っている。

日時 2016年10月21日(金)16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 福田大輔 (東京工業大学)
 タイトル  「旅行時間信頼性の経済評価〜個人・システム・動学の各観点から」

 交通システムにおける旅行時間は,時間帯や日によって大きく変動する.特に,Non-Recurrentな要因による旅行時間の変動は,利用者にとって大きなコストとなる.交通インフラ整備や料金施策による交通流の円滑化は,旅行時間信頼性の向上にも大きく貢献するため,その経済便益を適切に計測して事業評価に導入可能かどうかを検討することが必要である.本発表では,発表者がこれまでに行ってきた旅行時間信頼性の経済評価に関連する研究を,(1)相互作用を無視した個人レベルでの分析,(2) 個人間相互作用を考慮したシステム的分析,(3)動学的プロセスを考慮した分析,という三つの観点から解説する.

 日時  2016年7月12日(火)
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 劉秉镰 (南開大学経済と社会発展研究院)
 タイトル  中国京津冀の協同発展
(Main Issues on Regional Development in China)
アブストラクト  China has created an economic growth miracle in the past 30 odd years, meanwhile the regioanl strategy goes through four defferent periods, which provides strong support to economic development. Nowadays, China enters into the era of new normal, facing complex international and domestic environment, many issues in regional develpment are rising and needed to be solved urgently. This presentation will focus on the main issues on regional development in China, and include five parts: (1) China's regional development strategy; (2) Background of regional development; (3) Brief clarification of some major issues on regional development; (4) Urbanization in China; (5) Construction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei World-Class Metropolitan Area.
報告者 山形 与志樹 (国立環境研究所 地球環境研究センター)
タイトル Land Use Model and Urban Resilience
アブストラクト In this paper, I introduce our newly developed Spatially explicit Urban Land-use Model (SULM) as a tool for resilient urban planning. The SULM can create land-use and social economic scenarios at micro districts level based on an urban economic theory.   

日時 2016年5月27日(金) 16:30~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 佐藤 公敏 (尚絅学院大学)
タイトル Disaster Remains: How to Deal with these Intergenerational Common Patrimonies

This paper proposes an appraisal standard as to whether to preserve or demolish disaster remains which could be intergenerational common patrimonies. Doing so requires to use the theoretical framework referred to as the Attributes/Functionings Theory à la Gorman-Lancaster-Sen, that regards the disaster remains as a composition of attributes. Sentimental and altruistic marginal willingness-to-preserve are introduced, by which the preservation of each remain should be accepted or not. Residents including the bereaved family and dark tourists maximize their happiness function by utilizing their time and functionings. The conditions for an individually optimal composition of attributes embodied in disaster remains as well as goods are derived. Also deduced are the necessary conditions for producers to maximize their profits by providing Pareto optimal combination of attributes.

日時 2016年3月11日(金) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 瀬谷 創(広島大学)

A new approach to investigate spatially varying relationships

- Application to the hedonic analysis of flood risk -


This study developed a spatially varying coefficient model by extending the random effects eigenvector spatial filtering model (Murakami and Griffith, 2015). The developed model has the following properties: the coefficients are interpretable in terms of the Moran coefficient; unlike standard spatially varying coefficient models, our model estimates different spatial smoothness for each coefficient. A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that our model outperforms geographically weighted regression models with regard to the accuracy of the coefficient estimates and the computational time. We then empirically applied our model to a land price analysis of flood risk for Ibaraki prefecture. The obtained empirical result showed that flood risk was not capitalized into land prices around the inundated area by a river flood on September, 2015 in Joso municipality.

Sendai Workshop on Trade and Geography
日時 2016年2月22日(月)~2月23日(火)
場所 東北大学 文科系総合講義棟2階 第2小講義室
共催 東北大学 経済学研究科(現代経済学研究会)
東北大学 大学院情報科学研究科(地域科学ワークショップ)

日時 2015年11月20日(金) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 松尾 美和 (早稲田大学)

Gender Differences in Mobility of Hispanic Immigrants


  The U.S. immigrant population is steadily increasing, and approximately half of this population is Hispanic. This paper aims to understand the mobility of Hispanic immigrants, particularly whether gender differences exist in their mobility. Using National Household Travel Survey data for 2009, this paper finds that the gender difference in mobility is greater among Hispanics, particularly for low-income Hispanic immigrants, than for other populations. Hispanic female immigrants are substantially less likely to be drivers than their male counterparts and females of other race/ethnicity groups. Moreover, the probability of being a driver is persistently low for Hispanic female immigrants even after years of residing in the U.S., while driver status of females in other race/ethnicity groups increases quickly as they stay longer in the U.S. Hispanic female immigrants are likely not actively choosing to be non-drivers; if they are drivers, they drive more than females of other race/ethnicity groups. Although regression analysis does not prove causal relationships between low-income status and driver status, there are policy implications if barriers to becoming a driver limit training or employment and contribute to low-income status. More detailed analysis is anticipated to detail the mobility challenges Hispanic female immigrants face.

日時 2015年10月16日(金) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Lu Ming (上海交通大学)



  This paper provides evidences of heterogeneous human capital externality using CHIP 2002 and 2007 data from urban China. After instrumenting city-level education using the number of relocated university departments across cities in the 1950s, 1 year more city-level education increases individual hourly wage by 22.7%, almost twice the OLS estimate. Human capital externality is found to be significantly positive for college graduates in the instrumental variable estimation.

日時 2015年7月24日(金) 15:30~17:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 薛 領(北京大学)

Spatial Economics, Agent-Based Modeling and Non-equilibrium Dynamic Simulation


  During the last two decades, a lot of innovations have appeared in the field of urban and regional research. New paradigms such as dynamics of complex systems, self-organization, evolution theory, have been recognized for better understanding the evolutional process of regional spatial structure. The spatial evolution of regional system can be seen as a cumulative and aggregated order which results from numerous locally made decisions.
  As a case study in tourism, this presentation builds a mathematic model based on asymmetric monopolistic competition, scale economy, travel cost, preference for variety, and product/service differentiations between inland and coastal region in China since tourism has experienced a period of rapid growth in recent years. However, the traditional mathematic model is based on over-simplifying assumptions, such as heterogeneity irrelevant, fully-rational agents, no interactions among economic agents, unable to adapt and evolve. In addition, the equilibrium analysis is not suitable for dynamic research.
  To overcome the weakness of traditional economic model and equilibrium analysis in traditional tourism research, the presentation puts forward an approach to integrate economic model with agent-based modeling for better understanding the evolutional process of tourism systems in different scenarios. Therefore, instead of making nonlinear systems tractable by modeling complex building blocks with few interactions, we can make them understandable by modeling simple building blocks with many interactions among different agents in different areas based on spatial economic model.
 The TourSwarm, a computational environment we developed, contains multiple economic interactions between tourist and firm agents that are crucial in understanding dynamic process and mechanism because the basic force driving the tourism system is inherently microscopic. This parallel processing agent-based approach has shown various advantages over existing economic approaches such as neoclassical model and equilibrium analysis.
  By using agent-based modeling and out-of-equilibrium simulation, this presentation gives a detailed discussion on the impact factors such as continuous reduction of travel cost to inland region, continuous reduction of substitution elasticity between inland and coast region, continuous reduction of substitution elasticity of product and service in inland region. Therefore, microscopic simulation emphasizes the way in which locally made decisions and interaction between all kinds of local agents give rise to global patterns is highly appropriate.

日時 2015年7月24日(金) 17:10~18:40
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 太田 充 (筑波大学)

In this paper, we consider a dynamic behavior of an urban structure where there exist three kinds of units, households, front units of business firms, and their back units. When exogenous parameters change, an equilibrium state may become unstable, and the urban dynamical system will exhibits a transient response i.e., a convergence to a new equilibrium.  For this purpose, we construct a gradient system in terms of the obtained Gateaux derivatives and analyze the gradient system in the finite dimensional case. We conclude that the equilibrium of the proposed dynamical model coincides with the Nash equilibrium of the static model.

日時 2015年6月19日(金) 16:30~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Ian Wooton (University of Strathclyde)
タイトル Does tax competition make mobile firms more footloose? (with Ben Ferrett & Andreas Hoefele)

Existing analyses of fiscal competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) often assume a one-shot interaction between governments and the firm within a static geographical environment where the firm makes a permanent location choice. We examine a regional model where the economic geography evolves, giving the firm an incentive to relocate. We show that government competition for FDI leads the firm to make efficient location choices such that it is more likely to relocate than in the absence of such international rivalry. This is because the national tax/subsidy offers absorb some of the firm’s relocation costs.

日時 2015年4月17日(金) 16:30~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 佐藤公敏 (国際基督教大学)

A century passed since Thorstein Veblen published his renowned book entitled, The Theory of Leisure Class: An Economic Study of Institutions. The theme in this paper is to revive his unique theory with respect to the theories and concepts à la Gorman-Lancaster- Sen. Doing so requires to use a new framework of the Characteristics/ Capability Theory which is useful to explain both the Veblens consumption and Liebensteins snob and bandwagon effects in a more satisfactory way. Brand loyalty and conspicuous consumption are regarded as "impelled addictions."

日時 2015年3月20日(金) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 村田安寧 (日本大学)
タイトル New trade models, elusive welfare gains
(with Behrens, Kristian & Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu)

We generalize the formulae for welfare changes by Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare (2012) and Melitz and Redding (2014a) to allow for various cardinalizations of the subutility functions for varieties. Despite the same macro restrictions and the same equilibrium allocations, our new formula coincides with the original ones if and only if the number of varieties is invariant to foreign shocks. When product diversity responds to foreign shocks, different cardinalizations generate different welfare changes, thus revealing a fundamental difficulty in quantifying welfare gains implied by new trade models.

日時 2015年1月30日(金) 16:30~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 稲田光朗 (京都大学)
タイトル Heterogeneous Impacts of Investing in China on Domestic Market Outcomes: Empirical Evidence from Taiwanese Plant Level Data
(with Yung-Hsing Guo)
アブストラクト The domestic market consequences of firms' investing abroad have attracted attentions both of economists and policymakers. In particular, the effect of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic labor market outcomes are controversial in economic theories. Moreover, accelerating the movement of domestic production to abroad raised public concern about hollowing out of domestic technologies and employments. We investigate the impact of FDI towards China on plants' productivity and employment, using Taiwanese representative manufacturing plant-level data and exploiting an FDI regulation change in China in 2002 as a significant variation.
Our difference-in- differences estimates reveal a heterogeneity in the response of Taiwanese plants to this change in the regulation, that are consistent with the theoretical prediction by Sethupathy (2013): plants in deregulated industries which newly invested in China after 2000 experienced an increase in their productivity, employment and operating sales while plants in those industries which had already invested in China at 2000 decreased both employment and operating sales. We do not find any differential trends between plants in deregulated industries and those in other industries before the regulation change. Furthermore, we do not find a statistical evidence on the hollowing out effects of FDI on domestic market outcomes in deregulated industries.

日時 2015年1月9日(金) 16:30~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 田渕隆俊 (東京大学)
タイトル Endogenous Labor Supply and International Trade (with T. Ago, T.Morita and K. Yamamoto)

It is assumed in new trade theory and new economic geography that the supply of labor is fixed, which is not true in real labor markets. We develop a model of newtrade theory by incorporating an elastic labor supply and analyze the impacts of technological progress on the equilibrium outcomes of working hours and economic welfare. We first show that the labor supply curve is backward bending. We thenshow that working hours in developed countries are longer in the first stages of evelopment, but shorter in the second stages of development.

日時 2014年12月3日(水) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Rainald Borck (ポツダム大学)
タイトル Will the skyscrapers save the planet?

This paper studies the effectiveness of building height limits as a policy to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It shows that building height limits lead to urban sprawl and higher emissions from commuting. On the other hand, aggregate housing consumption may decrease which reduces emissions from residential energy use. A numerical model is used to show that total GHG emissions may be lower under building height restrictions, but only when they are very strict. Welfare is not concave in the strictness of building height limits, so either no limit or a very strict one might maximize welfare. The paper also studies the effect of endogenous transporttechnology and the urban heat island etc.

日時 2014年10月17日(金) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室

山村能郎 (明治大学)


Credit Risk Analysis on Euro Government Bonds

– Term Structures of Default Probabilities– (with

Takeaki Kariya, Yoko Tanokura, Zhu Wang)


 In this paper, we make a comprehensive credit risk analysis on government bonds (GBs) of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece over the period 2007.4-2012.3, where interest rate (IR) differential, government bond (GB) price differential, default probability (DP) and CDS are considered. First, applying the GB-pricing model in Kariya (1993) to these GB prices, we derive the term structures of interest rates (TSIRs) and discuss on the Maastricht convergence condition for the IR-differentials among these states relative to the German TSIRs and make some observations on some divergent tendencies. The results are associated with the business cycles and budgetary condition of each state.

In the second part, to substantiate this viewpoint, we first make credit risk price spread (CRiPS) analysis on price differentials and derive the term structures of default probabilities (TSDPs) of the French, Italian, Spanish and Greek GBs relative to the German GBs, where the corporate bond (CB) model proposed in Kariya (2013) is used in the derivation.  Then it is empirically shown that the TSDPs show a significant divergent movement at the end of 2011, affected by the Euro Crisis. In addition, the TSDPs of these GBs are empirically shown to be almost linear functions of the differences of the TSIRs, which enables us to state the Maastricht condition in terms of DP. 

 Thirdly the effectiveness of our TSDPs is empirically verified by comparing them with the corresponding credit default swap (CDSs) against US dollars.

日時 2014年6月13日(金) 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 石 敏俊 (中国科学院)
タイトル what is the future of a growing metropolis in North China under water resource constraints? (with Dingyang Zhou & Zhuoying Zhang)

Rapid progress of economic development and urbanization has created a water demand crisis in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis in North China. This study evaluates the metropolis’s carrying capacity under water resource constraints by examining the discrepancies between the actual water requirements, water usage and the locally available water resources; the water footprint (WF) approach is used to assess associated changes in these variables. A structural decomposition analysis is applied to decompose the driving factors of the increasing water requirements in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis. The results indicate that the increasing actual water requirements are far greater than the increase in the locally available water resources and water usage, especially in Beijing. The discrepancy between the actual water requirements, locally available water resources and water usage sharply increased from 2002 to 2007, which introduced a serious water crisis and more significant constraints on the water resources. The carrying capacity was based on freshwater transfer, groundwater extraction and VW trade. Four separate factors are considered to contribute to the effects of actual water requirement changes from 2002 to 2007: technological improvements, economic system efficiency, scale effect and consumption structure changes. Significant water-saving efforts via technological improvement have been made in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis in the past. However, these improvements could not cover the increasing actual water requirements driven by economic and population growth. To address the two challenges (i.e., regional development and the water shortage) and to enhance the carrying capacity in terms of sustainability in the future, the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis should adopt a more active role in controlling the growth of population and increasing the WF. Although increased water resources and interregional virtual water trades with other regions have greatly contributed to alleviating the water crisis in recent years in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolis, the water saving potential may be realized through the readjustment of industrial structure, consumption structure, urban spatial structure and economic instruments in the future.


日時 2014年4月29日(火) 13:00-15:00
場所 東北大学 片平さくらホール
 講演者及び  演題 矢澤   則彦 : 大都市近郊におけるまちづくりの特殊性と可能性
佐々木 公明 : 尚絅学院大学で行ったこと:講義『尚絅学』の開設

Keith Hipel教授による研究科講演会のご案内

Fulfillment and Success in Research

日時 2014年2月27日(木) 16:00-17:30
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科2階大会議室
参加費 無料(事前登録なし)
 講演者 Keith W. Hipel
President, Academy of Science, Royal Society of Canada

大学著名教授 (University Professor), PhD



日時 2014年2月07日 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 森 知也 (京都大学)
タイトル Spatial Patterns and Size Distributions of Cities (with Wen-Tai Hsu & Tony E. Smith)

City size distributions are known to be well approximated by power laws across many countries. One popular explanation for such power-law regularities is in terms of random growth processes, where power laws arise asymptotically from the assumption of iid growth rates among all cities within a given country. But this assumption has additional consequences. Since all subsets of cities have the same statistical properties, each subset must exhibit essentially the same power law. Moreover, this common power law (CPL) property must hold regardless of the spatial relations among cities. Using data from the US, this paper shows first that spatial partitions of cities based on geographical proximity are significantly more consistent with the CPL property than are random partitions. It is then shown that this significance becomes even stronger then proximity among cities is measured in terms of trade linkages rather than simple geographical distance. These results provide compelling evidence that spatial relations between cities do indeed matter for city-size distributions. Further analysis show that these results hinge on the natural "spacing out" property of city patterns in which larger cities tend to be widely spaced apart with smaller cities organized around them.

2014 Tohoku Symposium on Spatial Economicsのご案内
日時 2014年1月17日(金) 10:00-17:40
場所 東北大学 経済学部R401
参加費 無料(事前登録なし)

日時 2014年1月24日 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 伊藤 亮(名古屋市立大学)
タイトル Impact of supply chain network structure on FDI: Theory, evidence and policy implication (with Kentaro Nakajima)

This study investigates how structure of supply chain network of the domestic market influences FDI of firms embedded in the network. We firstly describe a binary choice of firms whether invest or not by a coordination game on fixed network with incomplete information on part of firms’ profit, and addressed that the unique equilibrium of the game is represented by Katz-Bonacich centrality measure which captures both direct and indirect effects from the network. We also give empirical tests for the theoretical hypothesis with a large sized disaggregated data of Japanese firms.  As our theory anticipated, it is verified that Katz-Bonacich centrality of each firm has a significantly positive effect on its FDI even when the sector-specific fixed effects and other attributes such as productivity are controlled.

日時 2013年11月8日 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 平松 燈 (熊本学園大学)
タイトル Comparing Location Effects of Alternative Road Pricing Policies (with Alex Anas)

The road pricing policies in the Chicago MSA are analyzed using RELU- TRAN2, a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model. The policies are: a) quasi- Pigouvian tolling of major roads; and b) of major and local roads; (a) and (b) are compared to their revenue-neutral fuel taxes. Qiasi-Pigouvian tolls on all roads and fuel taxes centralize the location of residences and jobs. Quasi-Pigouvian toll on major roads suburbanize these. Rents are increased under all of these policies because the floor spade demands increase of revenue distribution. The firms substitute labor for the building space and the wages are increased. Urban sprawl measured as total developed land increases under all policies. The model also calculates effects on VMT, GPM, aggregate fuel and CO2.

日時 2013年10月25日 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 後閑利隆 (ジェトロ・アジア経済研究所)
タイトル The location of manufacturing rms and imperfect information in transport market
アブストラクト It is well known that transport charges are not symmetric:fronthaul and backhaul costs on a route may differ, because they are affected by the sidtribution of economic activities. This paper develops a two-regional general equilibrium model in which transport costs are determined endogenously as a result of a search and matching process. It is shown that economies or dis economies of transport density emerge, depending on the search costs of transport rms and the relative importance of the possibility of backhaul transportation. It is found that the symmetry of the distribution of economic activity may break owing to economies of transport density when the additional search costs are small enough.

日時 2013年7月23日 10:30~12:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 Sergey Kokovin (Novosibirsk State University)
タイトル Investment in R&D under Monopolistic Competition: Large-Market Advantage and Thresholds
Igor Bykadorov, evgeny Zhelobodko)

We study endogenous productivity in monopolistic competition with general (unspecified) utility/investment functions; a bigger investment yields smaller marginal cost. Then the equilibrium investment increase with the market size if and only if the utility (realistically) generates increasing demand elasticity and this increase can be abrupt (threshold effect). However, this technological advantage of a bigger country/city is different from a welfare advantage. To fit social optimality conditions, a governmental taxation/subsidy should be non-linear. Our extensions include comparisons among industries with different characteristics, exogenous technological progress, heterogeneous firms.

日時 2013年3月8日 16:00~18:00
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
報告者 吉田 雄一朗 (政策研究大学院大学)
タイトル Optimal Circumferential Highway in a Monocentric City (with Abu Nur Rashed Ahmed)
アブストラクト This paper investigates the optimal location and capacity of circumferential highway in a two dimensional monocentric closed city model. Households are identical in their choices and endowments. They have three choices of mode to reach CBD. The dense city streets are direct but expensive and slow. The radial highways are faster but need to rely heavily on city streets to reach them. The circumferential highway(s) provides quicker travel to avail radial highways and thus reduces total travel cost. However, depending on the location and capacity of such highway(s), the city is divided by three distinct market areas which ultimately determine the size and shape of the city. Households are utility maximizer taking prices and characteristics of highway network as given. The social planner optimizes global equilibrium utility by adjusting the characteristics of highway network (e.g. location and capacity of the circumferential highway). In our analysis, we do not consider congestion and we assume that the wage and the agricultural land rent are exogenous. We nd that the general optimality condition of the transportation network improvement is such that the marginal cost of improvement is equal to the marginal increase in the aggregated dierential land rent. Furthermore, we illustrate a numerical solution of optimal highway network with a circumferential highway using Leontief Utility function. We nd that for a city with a larger number of radial highways, the optimal location of the circumferential highway is further out closer to the city boundary.


日時 2013年3月1日 15:00~
場所 東北大学 情報科学研究科810研究室
報告者 LAU Hoong Chuin

Living Analytics Research Centre、 Singapore Management University.
タイトル Dynamic Experience Management in Theme Parks via Coordination and Incentives
アブストラクト Mobile computing has changed the way businesses engage with consumers. At the individual levels, smart mobile devices are equipped with GPS sensors that enable user locations to be tracked in real-time, which enable personalized location-based services to be provided.
Consequently, there is an increasing trend toward use of mobile apps to plan and manage activities. At the corporate levels, such digital traces can be aggregated and analysed to accurate determine/predict demand patterns and congestion.
In this talk, I will present computational problems relating to the
operation of theme parks. From the visitors' perspective, the most important aspect is in maximizing their enjoyment in the park; while from the operator's perspective, one aspect is in congestion management (relieving long wait-times for rides and shows). The key in satisfying both aspects lie in effective coordination of visitors through proper dynamic guidance and well-timed incentives.
This talk discusses two problems arising from visitor flow coordination. I will first present the problem relating to single-agent dynamic stochastic route guidance, which is a generalization of the Orienteering Problem (Prize-Collecting Traveling Salesman). I will present an efficient and effective search method, and a mobile application developed for a large theme park operator. I then describe the problem of smoothing out demands/congestion through the use of incentives which are communicated via mobile devices. Here, we consider a network where each agent (i.e. visitor) maximizes his utility of pleasure seeking. Since incentives themselves are resources that are limited, they need to be carefully allocated in order to achieve the desired outcome of reducing congestion. More precisely, given a certain incentive budget level, the goal is to distribute the incentives to different agents at different time points so that certain congestion thresholds are satisfied at equilibrium. We present a mathematical model on how a solution might be computed.

 日時:  2012年7月27日(金)16:00~18:00
 場所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室

Sergey Kokovin  博士

ロシア Higher School of Economics, National Research University Economics Department, Novosibirsk State University
       (with E.Zhelobodko, J.-F.Thisse)
 タイトル: “General one-factor model of trade: wage differential, dumping, HME, firm size”
 アブストラクト:   For general 1-sector 1-factor 2-countries trade model, we derive equilibria comparative statics without restricting the utilities to CES or any other special form and allowing for unequal wages. Wage is higher in the bigger country but the difference vanishes when trade cost vanishes (globalization). Under increasing demand elasticity (decreasing elasticity of substitution) the size of a firm is smaller in the bigger country and the mass of firms shows Home-market effect, and both countries apply dumping. The opposite effects occur under decreasing demand elasticity. Globalization increases masses of firms in both countries. Under increasing demand elasticity, welfare in bigger country is higher (that makes any non-agglomerated migration equilibrium unstable when we allow for migration). These effects are shown analitically for small trade costs or almost-similar countries, and by simlations for AHARA class of utilities.

 日時:  2012年6月22日(金)16:00~18:00
 場所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科412号室
 報告者:  坪田建明  (アジア経済研究所)
       (共著者:田中清泰 アジア経済研究所)
 タイトル: “Agglomeration and directional imbalance of transport
costs: the role of density economies” 
 アブストラクト:   This paper examines a conventional assumption of transport costs; any bilateral transport costs are symmetric. Using a comprehensive dataset on transportation transactions in Japan, we first describe a directional imbalance of transportation costs by transport mode and examine its potential sources such as density economies, long-haul economies, and a directional imbalance of transport demand. Based on the method of instrumental variables, we find that the density economies drive a deviation of symmetric transport costs between prefectures. We then develop a theoretical model of economic geography in which asymmetric transport costs occur for density economies. Analyzing a spatial distribution of firms in the presence of the transport sector with density economies, we show that as the transport sector become more competitive, agglomeration is more likely to emerge in equilibrium.

 日 時:  2012年3月12日(月)14:00~17:00
 場 所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科新棟412号室

14:00~15:20 Meng Bo (Jetro)
Rise of Global Value Chains and Trade in Value Added

15:30~17:00 Fu Xue (Fudan University)
China’s Industry Actual Potential for Carbon Emission Reduction based on Optimal Input-Output Model

 日 時:  2012年3月9日(金)16:30~18:30
 場 所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科新棟412号室

藤嶋 翔太
(ワシントン大学 博士課程)


Growth, Agglomeration, and Urban Congestion


By considering an endogenous growth model with two regions and aunit mass of mobile workers, we study interactions among growth, agglomeration, and urban congestion. Unlike previous research in the urban growth literature, we formulate the model as a one-shot game and take an evolutionary game-theoretic approach for stability analysis. Our approach enables us to analyze stability of nonstationary equilibria in which populations of each region are not constant over time. We show that if both the expenditure share for housing and inter- regional transport cost are small, a stable stationary equilibrium does not exist. Moreover, in such a case, we show that there can exist a stable nonstationary equilibrium in which mobile workers agglomerate in one region at first but some of them migrate to the other region later. We argue that such a nonstationary location pattern is related to return migration.

 日 時:  2012年2月24日(金)16:00~18:00
 場 所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科新棟412号室

瀬木 俊輔 (京都大学 博士課程)




本研究は、動学的確率的一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)モデルを用いて、防災投資と災害リスクの地域間配分の規範的なあり方を分析する。本研究の分析により、災害リスク存在下の効率的な物的資本ストックの蓄積に関する、いくつかの知見が得られた。第一の知見は、災害リスク移転先の地域では、災害リスク移転元の地域から支払われる保険料が投資に用いられるため、災害リスクを引き受けないときと比較すると、平常時において、より多くの生産資本(工場や道路などの生産活動に寄与する資本)が蓄積されることである。この余分な生産資本により、リスク移転元の地域が被災したときに支払う保険金が確保される。この結果は、パレート最適なリスク配分の実現のためには、復興の資金が地域外の生産資本という形で確保されなければいけないことを示していると言える。第二の知見は、災害が生起する可能性のある地域における生産資本ストックKと防災資本ストックGの組(K,G)は、長期的には、ある右上がりの曲線G=g(K)の上に乗らなければいけないことである。(K,G)がこの曲線上に無い場合には、不足している資本にのみ投資を行い、できる限り早くこの曲線上に乗らなければいけない。この曲線G=g(K)は、所与の生産資本ストックKの下で、防災資本ストックが長期的に到達すべき指針を表していると解釈できる。また、本研究は、この曲線G=g(K)が、災害リスクの取引される金融市場で観測される価格と密接に結びついていることを示す。災害リスクのリスクプレミアムが高いほど、この曲線は上方にシフトし、長期的に蓄積されるべき防災資本ストックは高くなる。

 日 時:  2011年11月18日(金)16:00~18:00
 場 所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科新棟412号室

原 裕輔
大学院 工学系研究科)




 日 時:  2011年10月7日(金)16:00~18:00
 場 所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科新棟412号室

Guoqing Zhao
(School of Economics, Renmin University of China)


FDI Spillovers Effect, Environmental Pollution and Total Factor Productivity


Using the correlated data of 28 Chinese manufacturing industries during 1999-2008, this paper examines the effects of the foreign direct investment, which is distinguished as horizontal, forward linkage and backward linkage spillovers, and environmental pollution on total factor productivity.The empirical results show that the existence of positive spillovers from FDI taking place through backward linkages, but there are no significant evidences of spillovers occurring through either the horizontal or the forward linkage channel. Environmental pollution has significant negative effect on TFP. Further studies suggest that horizontal FDI spillover effect mitigates the disadvantage effect of environment pollution on industry’ productivity progress and decreases the emission of environment pollution, while on the contrary, the vertical FDI spillover effect (especially through backward linkages) doesn’t mitigate the disadvantage effect of environment pollution on industry’ productivity progress and increases the emission of environment pollution.

 日 時:  2011年6月17日(金)16:00~18:00
 場 所:  東北大学 情報科学研究科新棟412号室
 報告者: Kimitoshi Sato
(Rikkyo University)
 アブストラクト: Malinvaud, Drèze and de la Vallée Poussin (MDP) designed a tâtonnement process for public goods.  The theme of this research is to generalize the MDP Procedure to achieve local strategy proof, i.e., truthful revelation for public goods is a dominant strategy for each player in a local incentive game.